Global Beef Market Update

Recently, the global beef market presents complex and changeable development trends. Based on the data from January to May, this paper will focus on analyzing the market conditions of the three major beef producing and exporting countries, namely, the United States, Brazil and Australia. 

In terms of output, the US beef market experienced a process of first decreasing and then increasing from January to May, with a cumulative output of 5.006 million tons, basically flat with the same period last year.  Especially in May, US beef production reached 1.041 million tons, up 1.0% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year, showing a strong recovery momentum.  This trend may be related to the USDA's previous forecast of increased slaughter and carcass weight in the first half of the year. 

In terms of trade, the global beef export market shows a trend of growth in Brazil and Australia and decline in the United States.  Brazil, as one of the world's largest beef exporters, exported 1.075 million tons from January to May, up 34.4% year-on-year, of which exports to China reached 473,000 tons, up 25.3% year-on-year.  This strong performance not only consolidates Brazil's leading position in the Chinese market, but also reflects the stability and efficiency of its domestic beef production. 

Australia's beef exports also performed well, with total exports from January to May reaching 495,000 tons, up 28.9% year-on-year.  Although exports to China fell year-on-year in May, overall exports remained high, demonstrating Australia's competitiveness in the global beef market. 

In contrast, U.S. beef exports declined.  1-5 The total monthly export volume was 568,000 tons, down 4.8% year-on-year, of which exports to China also showed a downward trend.  This change may be related to the tight supply of beef in the United States and the intensified competition in the international market. 

In terms of price, the US beef market continued to rise, with an average price of US $7.17/kg in the first half of the year, up 21.6% year on year.  Entering June, US beef prices rose further to US $7.95/kg, up 3.3% month-on-month and 26.4% year-on-year.  This price level not only hit a new high, but also reflects the tight market supply and strong consumer demand. 

It is worth noting that the rise in U.S. beef prices echoes changes in beef markets in several regions around the world.  For example, beef and mutton prices in the Chinese market have fallen back to early 2019 levels, while ground beef prices in the United States hit record highs due to declining market supply and the arrival of the summer peak season.  These changes indicate that the global beef market is in a dynamic adjustment process, and the supply-demand relationship and price trends between countries affect each other. 

Later market outlook, it is expected that the arrival of European and American consumption peak season will drive the meat price to maintain a small rise in the third quarter. With the slowdown of global beef production growth, the strong beef price in the United States and Australia will drive the international beef price to fluctuate upward.