Outlook for the second half of the year: can ecuador's shrimp industry reverse its export decline?

According to data from the Global Shrimp Forum Foundation and Wilem van der Pi, Ecuador's shrimp industry achieved steady growth in total production and sales in the first half of the year, although the export growth rate was only 2%, especially in the second quarter. Sales exceeded 344,000 tons, a record high.  This achievement shows that Ecuadorian shrimp still has strong competitiveness and demand base in the international market. 

However, entering the second half of the year, Ecuador's shrimp industry encountered the challenge of its first monthly export volume decline year-on-year, with exports falling 3% in July compared with the same period last year.  This change has aroused widespread concern in the market, but it has not completely shaken the confidence of the industry in the future.  Based on the current trend and the traditional consumption season such as the Spring Festival, the industry generally predicts that the export volume in the second half of the year is expected to achieve a growth of 10%, and the total export volume for the whole year is expected to reach about 1,280,000 tons.  This expectation not only reflects confidence in the recovery of market demand, but also reflects the flexibility and resilience of Ecuador's shrimp industry in responding to challenges. 

Gabriel Luna, shrimp sourcing expert at G.Luna Shrimp, takes a more cautious view of the slowdown.  He pointed out that 2024 witnessed a significant slowdown in growth, especially in July and August, which directly affected export performance.  This change is closely related to the adjustment of farmers 'breeding strategies.  In response to market volatility, many farmers chose to delay the prawn harvest until May, which contributed to the export peak in the second quarter but also made supplies relatively tight in subsequent months. 

Gabriel Luna further predicts that Ecuador's shrimp industry could see some growth over the next two months as previously delayed harvests mature.  However, he is not optimistic about achieving the 10% growth target for the whole year, but more realistically predicts that growth rates of 2-5% may be achieved by the end of the year.  This forecast reminds us that Ecuador's shrimp industry, while pursuing growth, needs to pay close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjust farming strategies to meet the challenges of uncertainty.