Dynamic Analysis of Beef Import Market in September 2024

In September 2024, China's beef import market showed a trend of high operation but slight decline.According to the data, the total import volume of beef in China in September was 220,000 tons, continuing the high trend of imports exceeding 200,000 tons in a single month for 16 consecutive months since June last year.However, beef imports decreased by about 10,000 tons compared to the previous month, indicating some market volatility.

This market dynamic is mainly influenced by multiple factors.First, Brazil, as one of China's main sources of beef imports, imposed an export embargo between July 17 and August 12 due to the Newcastle disease outbreak, resulting in a significant reduction in Brazilian chicken imports during September.While the embargo mainly affected poultry imports, it also affected expectations and availability in the beef market to some extent.In addition, the surge in live cattle prices in Brazil has also pushed up beef export prices, further affecting import costs in the China market.

However, despite these challenges, China's beef import market has maintained strong growth momentum.In the first half of this year, beef imports showed monthly year-on-year growth, laying a solid foundation for the growth of imports throughout the year.Even though the import volume from July to September could not be compared with the same period last year, which was at the peak of arrival, the cumulative import volume from January to September still reached 2.1 million tons, a net increase of 60,000 tons compared with 2.04 million tons in the same period last year.This data shows that China's import demand for beef remains strong and is expected to continue to grow.

From the source of imports, the overall export shipment to China from the main source of imported beef in August-September shows that the import arrival volume from October to the first half of November is expected to decline slightly.However, as the end of the year approaches, the concentration of beef imports will keep supply loose until at least early next year.This means that despite Brazilian beef prices rising due to soaring domestic live cattle prices, beef supply to the China market can still be guaranteed.

In terms of price, the average import price in September was 33364 yuan/ton, which fell again this month after a brief correction last month.However, since the beginning of July, imported beef futures prices have risen across the board, indicating that future import arrival prices will gradually move upward.July 33015 yuan/ton has become the lowest monthly level of the year, the future price trend will be affected by a variety of factors, including international market price fluctuations, exchange rate changes, domestic demand and so on.