Not enough beef to sell around the world?Supply shortages will continue until 2026!

Joe Kerns, a US analyst and agribusiness consultant, recently gave insight into the global beef market outlook at the BeefEx conference in Brisbane, Australia.He pointed out that the current global beef market presents an almost overly optimistic trend, which is behind both supply-side tightening and demand-side continued growth.

Kerns stressed that beef prices across the world are generally rising and that this phenomenon is not isolated.The supply of live cattle is dwindling in nearly all beef producing countries, while consumer demand for beef is rising.This imbalance between supply and demand is not only driving up beef prices, but also raising earnings expectations for beef producers.In the United States, fresh beef prices have hit record highs, but producers are still hoping for further price increases, reflecting the degree of tension between supply and demand in the market.

However, Kerns also reminds us that while the income outlook for the global livestock industry looks optimistic, there are many challenges behind it.He expects the current beef price cycle to peak by around July 2026.This prediction is not groundless, but based on in-depth analysis and judgment of current market trends.

On the supply side, cattle reconstruction has not yet started in the United States due to natural disasters such as drought, further exacerbating supply tensions.At the same time, major beef producers such as Mexico and the Southern Common Market (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay) face similar challenges and supply constraints.Changes in EU policy have also adversely affected the livestock industry, making global beef supplies more tight.

Australia, by contrast, is an exception.Kerns pointed out that Australia's beef production will continue to grow until the summer of 2026, which will partly ease the global supply tension.But it does not necessarily mean that the global beef market will be stable.

On the demand side, the global demand for beef is increasing.With the population growth and consumption upgrading, consumers are increasingly demanding high-quality, healthy and safe beef products.This increased demand not only drives up beef prices, but also provides more market opportunities for beef producers.

However, Kerns also reminds us that global supply will continue to shrink, and this will continue until 2026 and 2027.This means that in the next few years, the global beef market will face more severe supply and demand contradictions and challenges.