Change of global shrimp industry pattern: Ecuador has changed, Penaeus monodon rises again!

Ecuador has been the world's largest shrimp exporter due to the rapid rise in shrimp production.  However, in 2024, its rapid growth stopped abruptly.  Although output growth is still expected to be around 4%, it has slowed sharply from the high double-digit growth in previous years, and exports fell sharply by 11% in September.  This undoubtedly brings huge variables to the supply map of the global shrimp industry, and both breeding and export links will face deep adjustment. 

Ecuador's shrimp industry used to be highly dependent on the China market.  Since 2023, the purchasing power of China consumers has declined, severely impacting its exports.  For example, in the first quarter of 2024, Ecuador's exports to China and exports declined significantly.  Ecuador turned its attention to the United States.  The United States lifted countervailing duties on its largest shrimp exporter and demand picked up, opening new avenues for Ecuador.  According to the data, in May 2024, Ecuador's exports to the United States increased by 53% year-on-year. 

The shrimp industry in Latin America presents a differentiated pattern.  Brazil's shrimp industry is booming, with output expected to grow by 10% in 2024, driven by domestic consumption and exports, gradually emerging in regional competition.  Growth in Mexico has been flat, while small farmers in Peru, Honduras and Guatemala have struggled with low-price competition and industry consolidation has accelerated. 

Asia's shrimp industry also faces many difficulties.  India, as a major shrimp exporter, has seen its output decline by 4% in 2023 and is expected to continue to decline by 3% in 2024. Although exports show signs of recovery, prices are accompanied by uncertainty in demand.  Vietnam and Indonesia, though showing growth, are being questioned.  The overall supply capacity of the Asian shrimp industry is likely to be further stressed in 2024, with Latin American countries such as Ecuador gaining more market share in the United States and the European Union.  This may prompt Asian shrimp countries to re-examine their own industrial development models and increase investment in quality improvement and cost control. 

Penaeus monodon culture is emerging quietly in asia.  The new shrimp species perform well in high-density farming, producing large-size products and selling at a considerable price, with production increasing by 3.2% in 2023, expected to increase by 9% in 2024 and likely to increase by 7% in 2025.  However, at present, it accounts for only 10% of the global shrimp production, about 550,000 tons, which is still a minority.  However, this trend may change the variety structure of shrimp market in the future, guide more farmers to try new breeding varieties, and provide a new direction for the diversified development of shrimp industry. 

In terms of the three major global markets, the US market has shown signs of recovery recently.  Retailers in North America and Europe cut prices to buy shrimp products, stimulating consumption and easing inventories, and easing inflation allowed consumers to regain purchasing power.  However, China market, as one of the largest shrimp consumption markets in the world, has performed poorly.  In the first three quarters of 2024, shrimp imports decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, seafood consumption stagnated as a whole, consumers tended to low prices, simple processed ingredients, shrimp retail prices were under pressure. 

Although China has an economic stimulus plan, market demand is still uncertain in the short term.  This allows exporters such as Ecuador, which traditionally rely on the China market, to invest more resources in the EU and US markets. This shift is expected to stabilize exports and drive global shrimp prices back up. The recovery of the US market and the lifting of trade restrictions are a big plus for farmers.