Ecuador white shrimp "price" double attention: multiple factors cause price rise

In the last two days before China's National Day, the price of Santa and Ace 3040 shrimp in the port rose significantly, climbing 10 yuan each.  This change not only narrows the price gap between the port and Jinan to only 0-5 yuan per piece, but also indicates that the domestic aquatic product market is welcoming new changes. 

Looking back over the past few months, although the port arrival volume of Ecuadorian shelled white shrimp has increased slightly, from the overall trend, the total amount of Ecuadorian shelled white shrimp imported by China this year has decreased.  Data show that from January to August, China imported 451,000 tons of white shrimp with shells from Ecuador, equivalent to about 23,000 containers, with an average of 2879 containers imported per month, a decrease of 7% compared with the same period in 2023.  This reduction in overall supply reflects the adjustment made by the domestic aquatic product market in response to the downward trend of consumption, and the destocking process has been successfully completed. 

However, with the gradual warming of the domestic consumption market, the market demand for white shrimp, the largest category of aquatic product consumption, has begun to show a trend of continuous expansion.  In August 2024, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% year-on-year, which undoubtedly injected new vitality into the consumer market.  In this context, white shrimp with its rich nutritional value and broad consumer base, the future market demand prospects are very broad. 

However, the price of Ecuadorian white shrimp is facing multiple factors, showing an upward trend.  On the one hand, US interest rate cuts have led to the opening of appreciation channels for China's renminbi, a change that will undoubtedly enhance China's purchasing power over Ecuadorian white shrimp imports.  Ecuador, on the other hand, was experiencing its worst drought in 61 years, a natural disaster that had severely affected not only its energy supply, which depended on hydropower, but also shrimp production.  As of mid-September, Ecuador's government had warned of possible power outages of up to eight hours a day across the country due to grid shortages.  If this situation continues, the daily economic losses of its shrimp industry may exceed US $5 million.  This series of adverse conditions will undoubtedly lead to limited production of Ecuadorian white shrimp, further pushing up its price. 

Under the dual effect of RMB appreciation and Ecuador's domestic production restriction, the import cost of Ecuadorian white shrimp will undoubtedly increase.  This change is expected to support domestic sales prices to remain firm and may even push market prices higher.  For domestic consumers and importers, this is undoubtedly a market dynamic that needs to be closely watched.